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Open Access Article

Journal of Engineering Research. 2025; 4: (6) ; 45-47 ; DOI: 10.12208/j.jer.20250261.

Analysis of comprehensive evaluation of operational risks in virtual power plants based on Bayesian cloud model
基于贝叶斯云模型的虚拟电厂运营风险综合评价简析

作者: 邢智杰 *

上海电力大学 上海

*通讯作者: 邢智杰,单位:上海电力大学 上海;

发布时间: 2025-06-10 总浏览量: 24

摘要

为了降低虚拟电厂运营期间风险事件的发生概率,文章以贝叶斯云模型作为基础,针对虚拟电厂的运营风险综合评价进行研究以及分析。在简单分析目前虚拟电厂运营风险综合评价以及管理原则和重要意义的基础上,探讨了虚拟电厂运营风险的评价指标体系,并基于贝叶斯云模型形成了较为完善的评价体系以及相关模型,最终通过分析发现在虚拟电厂的运营期间,运行风险、经济风险、安全风险和管理风险始终存在,并且运行风险和经济风险的发生概率以及影响相对较高,需要根据实际的外在环境变化及时处理风险因素。

关键词: 虚拟电厂;贝叶斯云模型;运营风险评价

Abstract

In order to further reduce the probability of risk events during the operation of virtual power plants, this article uses Bayesian cloud model as the basis to study and analyze the comprehensive evaluation of operational risks in virtual power plants. On the basis of a simple analysis of the comprehensive evaluation and management principles of operational risks in virtual power plants, this paper explores the evaluation index system of operational risks in virtual power plants. Based on the Bayesian cloud model, a relatively complete evaluation system and related models are formed. Finally, through analysis, it is found that operational risks, economic risks, safety risks, and management risks always exist during the operation of virtual power plants, and the probability and impact of operational and economic risks are relatively high. Risk factors need to be dealt with in a timely manner according to actual external environmental changes.

Key words: Virtual power plant; Bayesian cloud model; Operational risk assessment

参考文献 References

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引用本文

邢智杰, 基于贝叶斯云模型的虚拟电厂运营风险综合评价简析[J]. 工程学研究, 2025; 4: (6) : 45-47.